By Q Radio News/ PA
Significant intervention could be required in Northern Ireland immediately after Christmas to keep Covid-19 inpatient numbers below 1,000, ministers have been told.
A Department of Health modelling paper said that would be the scenario facing the Executive if Omicron turns out to be “close” to the severity of the Delta variant.
The peak of Covid-19 hospital inpatient numbers during the pandemic in Northern Ireland was 1,055 in January this year.
The paper, seen by the PA news agency, was circulated to ministers ahead of Thursday’s meeting of the Executive, outlined how Omicron was expected to spread in the region.
Officials stressed that the severity of the variant remained “uncertain” and it was likely that booster vaccinations would offer protection against severe illness.
“It is likely that a peak in case numbers will occur in the middle third of January, with hospital admissions and occupancy peaking in late January/early February,” the paper added.
“The extent of the hospital peak will depend on the severity of Omicron illness, but without further measures is likely to exceed numbers observed earlier in the epidemic, potentially several fold.”
The paper said data from England and Scotland expected in the next week or two will allow the initial modelling estimates for Northern Ireland to be “refined”.
It added: “However, if Omicron is associated with disease severity close to that of Delta, significant intervention would be required immediately after Christmas at the latest to have a reasonable chance of keeping hospital inpatient numbers at less than 1,000.”
No significant announcements on Covid restrictions are expected after Thursday’s Executive with the meeting instead being billed as an opportunity for ministers to assess the data around Omicron.
Details of the modelling paper emerged after it was confirmed that Northern Ireland’s booster rollout will further accelerate next week when vaccination centres open to the over-18s.
Some GP and community pharmacies are already offering jabs to the 18-29 age cohort.
Significant intervention could be required in Northern Ireland immediately after Christmas to keep Covid-19 inpatient numbers below 1,000, ministers have been told
— Q Radio News (@qnewsdesk) December 16, 2021
https://t.co/tmad0j2gSq
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